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Revamping passenger demand models for a post-COVID aviation world

With the aviation world slowly initiating a recovery from the capacity shock resulting from Covid-19, stakeholders within the industry – airports, airlines, regulators, governments, investors and lessors – require reliable demand forecasts in order to strategize and plan for the future. However, existing forecasts are invalid. Traditional forecasting methods must be adapted to the new conditions. In the article, Lufthansa Consulting proposes three key adaptations for revamping passenger demand models for a post-COVID aviation world.

1.    A new reality requires new indicators of demand, including elements such as Covid-19 related trends, traveler sentiment and post-crisis passenger behavior. This also necessitates new modes of data collection and management, often in real time 

2.    The future should be approached as four distinct segments, ranging from the immediate near term revival in 2020 to long term growth over a 20 year period. Each segment varies in the level of uncertainty and hence the factors driving traffic and the duration. Segregation of the forecast and applying a different approach to each allows one to group elements of uncertainty and tailor forecasting to the most relevant factors.

3.    Flexibility and inventiveness are essential to navigate a dynamic environment. That translates to regular updates of the forecasts and quick ‘test and learn’ trials for short term planning, and incorporating the potential effects of future shocks into mid or long term planning scenarios.

Read the article in full here

To learn more and discuss how your organization could benefit from Lufthansa Consulting’s expertise on Crisis Recovery, please get in touch at ALcrisis-solutions@LHConsulting.com.

Further insights from Lufthansa Consulting’s aviation experts are available here

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Award

Best of Consulting

For the second time in a row Lufthansa Consulting has been awarded the renowned consultancy prize "Best of Consulting" by the German weekly business news magazine WirtschaftsWoche. The “Excellent” award went to a successful Air Service Development project with Auckland International Airport, the largest airport of New Zealand and the third busiest international airport in Australasia. Lufthansa Consulting and its client Auckland International Airport are incredibly pleased about the award and that the WirtschaftsWoche jury could also be convinced of this successful project. Both look very much forward to their further productive and prosperous cooperation.