Air Service Development

•  traffic in 2010

    - VAR: 1,2 million passengers / 78 tons carg

    - BOJ: 1,9 million passengers / 5.650 tons cargo

Project duration

• Feb 2011 - Apr 2011

Services provided by Lufthansa Consulting

• Detailed tourism market assessment
• Traffic forecast review and update (distinguishing 3 scenarios):
  – Review of the existing traffic forecasts
  – Development of a new short-term (2 years) and long-term (30 years) traffic forecast for passenger and cargo segment:
  - Scheduled / Non-Scheduled; Adults / Children
  - International / Domestic; Schengen / Non-Schengen; EU / Non-EU
  – Development of a new short and long-term:
  - Air Traffic Movements Forecast (MTOWs, seat load factors, ATMs per aircraft type)
  - Peak-hour and design day forecast; Design day flight schedule forecast
•  Employment review and update
  – Review of existing employment forecast
  – Status quo analysis of workforce (permanent and temporary) within the segments:
  - Ground Handling / Aviation; Non-aviation
  - Administration; Maintenance
•  Development of a new employment forecast for 15 years

Project description

Lufthansa Consulting was assigned to review two existing traffic forecast of a competitor from 2007 and 2009. Both forecast proofed to be too optimistic as the market underperformed not only due to the global economic crisis in 2009. Both airports are the main access points to the Black Sea tourism market and are fully driven by seasonal demand.

The focus of the assignment was to give Fraport Twin Star a reliable and updated basis for the ongoing Master Plan development at both airports. The analysis resulted in a reduction of  the investment program due to revised forecast figures.